Early poll in special election to replace Nathan Fletcher gives insight to political dynamics, hints at campaign themes
Four people are running for county supervisor in District 4 and one of them could win the seat outright by gaining a majority of votes in the Aug. 15 special election.
The district is heavily Democratic and includes about 675,000 residents in the cities of Lemon Grove and La Mesa and numerous communities in central San Diego, including City Heights, Kearny Mesa, Clairemont and neighborhoods near Balboa Park. At the outset of the special election campaign, a poll suggested Reichert may be more of a threat to Goldbeck than Montgomery Steppe.
The San Diego Union-Tribune obtained the “conclusions and recommendations” of the poll, but not the complete survey or the full matchup numbers. According to the poll, Goldbeck, a Marine veteran, has weaker name identification than Montgomery Steppe, who was re-elected in November to the City Council’s District 4, which is encompassed by the supervisorial district.
One of the recommendations appears to be a basis for a video ad criticizing Montgomery Steppe financed by the city’s San Diego Police Officers Association. That’s a curious development in a county supervisor race.On the one hand, the poll says three negative messages tested for “high efficacy.”
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