Phivolcs provides four eruption scenarios for MayonVolcano, given its current state of unrest.
had emerged from the crater, after its preexisting one was “pushed out in increments that formed rockfall.” As of 7 pm on Saturday, 654 rockfall events had been recorded for June, along with 7 PDCs.
Also on Saturday, SO2 emission “increased beyond baseline levels,” reaching an average of 1,205 tons per day.At present, new lava is slowly flowing out of Mayon’s summit and SO2 emission is “moderately elevated,” while seismic and ground deformation parameters are still considered low. Phivolcs has warned that “a hazardous eruption is possible within weeks or even days.” But it is impossible to predict with absolute certainty that this type of eruption will indeed occur.
One of the four scenarios shows Alert Level 3 will be maintained, two scenarios would mean the declaration of Alert Level 4, and the worst-case scenario will lead to the raising of Alert Level 5 – the highest.If the current rate of extrusion and low-level parameters continue, there would be a slow lava dome and short lava flow extrusion, similar to Mayon’s 2014 eruption. The activity may persist for a few months.
If there is a rapid escalation – or sudden drop – in SO2, as well as a surge in volcanic earthquakes and ground deformation, this may lead to an explosive eruption with high-intensity lava fountains, long lava flows, and PDCs that could go beyond the PDZ, similar to the volcano’s 2000 eruption. The activity may last for a few days to weeks.
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