APRIL 15 — The inaugural International Day of Mathematics was celebrated on March 14, 2020 at the time when the world is fighting Covid-19. In conjunction with the celebration, this article introduces and highlights the importance of mathematics to the world, in the context of Covid-19 pandemic....
APRIL 15 — The inaugural International Day of Mathematics was celebrated on March 14, 2020 at the time when the world is fighting Covid-19. In conjunction with the celebration, this article introduces and highlights the importance of mathematics to the world, in the context of Covid-19 pandemic.
One simple example is Google Maps. If it says your journey is 40 minutes, nobody believes it will take exactly that long, but having that information is much more useful than having nothing at all.In reality, during an outbreak, we only ever see one version of the outbreak. Models are at their most useful when they can reveal or quantify something which is not obvious. For instance, during this outbreak, several unprecedented measures were introduced by China in late January, such as citywide travel restrictions and school closures.3. What are the advantages of mathematical model over physical model?
The model predictions are very valuable but are not infallible. Those who put too much trust in mathematical models are demonstrating as much of a misunderstanding of mathematics as those who do not trust mathematical models at all. Mathematical modelling is only as good as the data fed into the computers.
The mathematical models are not meant to be crystal balls predicting exact numbers or dates. For example, according to the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research ’s projection, Malaysia would have 4,087 new Covid-19 cases by March 31.However, this does not mean we should not employ mathematical models, we definitely should. There are ways to address these limitations.
Now, mathematical modelling does not get much more policy-relevant than this. Governments around the world are now relying on forecasts of mathematical models to assist their decision-making during this crisis. However, Covid-19 is not the first infectious disease mathematicians have modelled. In the UK, the government initially carried out fewer measures compared to other countries, based partly on modelling work by a research team at Imperial College London. However, on March 16, using fresh data from the UK and Italy, the team published a significantly revised model which indicated that even a reduced peak would overwhelm their medical capacity.
Another example is Vittoria Colizza, a mathematician at the Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health in Paris, who is advising the French government during this pandemic. Leading international financial services house JP Morgan forecasts peak infection in the middle of April at about 6,300 cases while local research firm Mier predicted that the maximum number of cumulative cases is 8957.
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