Disease modelling experts say the effects of the measures taken to limit the spread of the novel coronavirus may not appear for weeks. But when they do, if effective, they should begin to appear as declines in the new number of cases relative to the days before and, ultimately, no new cases.
VANCOUVER -- When Caroline Colijn sees the daily numbers of new cases of COVID-19 in Canada, she looks for certain things.
When health experts talk about the curve as it relates to COVID-19, they are referring to the number of active cases over time. In a pandemic, the goal is to ensure the peak of the curve falls below the health-care system's capacity to deal with it. Ashleigh Tuite, associate professor of epidemiology at the University of Toronto, said graphs circulating that show the potential path of COVID-19 in Canada come with "huge amounts of uncertainty" for several reasons.
Still, modellers are doing what they can with the data available. In Tuite's models, the worst-case scenario would see about 70 per cent of the Canadian population contract COVID-19. The best case scenario would be a vaccine, but that's not arriving in the short term.
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