Every nugget of information on the U.S.-China trade deal is of high interest, including the details of where and when the deal might be signed.
Wall Street has been hanging on every headline and bit of speculation on the where and when of the signing of the phase 1 trade agreement between China and the U.S.
"Once you find the location, you slap a date on it. Things get signed, and we move on. This would remove a lot of the headwinds," said one strategist. Stocks have run up on optimism about trade progress, but have been languishing in the past two sessions, as the market digests recent gains to new highs, and no new information has materialized on the trade front. Trump and Xi had been expected to sign the agreement in Chile on the sidelines of the APEC meeting, but Chile announced last week that it could not host the Nov. 16 meeting due to protests in the country.
Cashin said the market was not concerned about where the meeting will be held, but the report on the timing was key since the longer talks go on, the more chances there are they get derailed. Cashin said he did not believe Xi would come to the U.S. for a meeting because of it could look like he was giving ground to Trump.Evercore analysts, in a note Wednesday, also said Xi won't come to the U.S., and they hypothesized a list of possible trade outcomes.
Other policy strategists believe a deal will be reached, including agricultural sales to China and U.S. relief on the blacklisting of Chinese telecom firm Huawei. Dan Clifton, head of policy research at Strategas, said U.S. exports of liquified natural gas have again become part of the discussion, and a source close to the discussions told CNBC energy was part of phase 1 talks."We're at the end, and there's volatility at the end of the discussions," said Clifton.
Clifton said the Trump administration is eager to get a deal done because of a softening economy, but China is as well, since it has been concerned about rising food costs and a loss of exports. He said a deal will get done, regardless of whether Trump and Xi meet.
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