“The ‘forever war’ waged by America in Afghanistan put a strain on relations with Pakistan,” writes LodhiMaleeha, Pakistan’s former ambassador to the United States, in a piece for The Economist
As America’s war effort faltered, the strains in relations grew and trust eroded. Pakistan sought to keep its channel of communication open with the Taliban, believing that one day everyone would have to deal with them. Nor did Pakistan have the luxury of retreating to the other end of the world if things went wrong. Meanwhile, the American raid into Pakistan that killed Osama bin Laden in May 2011 plunged relations to an all-time low.
Even before America pulled out, geopolitical dynamics were shifting fundamentally as China stepped up its diplomatic and economic engagement, and launched its Belt and Road Initiative , and as Russia began to act more assertively. Regional states including Pakistan were beginning to sense a waning of both American interest and influence. Donald Trump’s “America First” foreign policy signalled gradual disengagement from the region.
For one reason, America has made no secret of its misgivings over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a collection of Chinese-funded infrastructure and energy projects under way in Pakistan. For another, officials in Islamabad have lowered their expectations of ties with America: for after its exit from Afghanistan, the superpower will no longer be reliant on Pakistan to support its operations there.
The future of Afghanistan rests principally on whether the Taliban can govern. Public expectations there are very different from when the group last held power, from the 1990s until 2001. Their immediate challenge, other than consolidating power, is to avert an economic collapse. Foreign-currency assets have been frozen by America and funding from the IMF and the World Bank is suspended.
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