Affin Group Chief Economist warns that a geopolitical conflict in West Asia lasting over six months could drive inflation above 2.5 percent and force the government to review fiscal positions and RON95 fuel subsidies.
KUALA LUMPUR: Ekonomi Malaysia dijangka berdepan tekanan inflasi yang lebih tinggi sekiranya konflik geopolitik di Asia Barat berlarutan melebihi tempoh enam bulan, sekali gus memberi kesan kepada kedudukan fiskal kerajaan.
Ketua Ahli Ekonomi Kumpulan Affin, Alan Tan berkata, andaian awal perang akan berakhir dalam tempoh satu hingga tiga bulan kini perlu dinilai semula memandangkan konflik tersebut telah melepasi tempoh berkenaan. Katanya, sekiranya harga minyak mentah Brent terus kekal melebihi AS$110 setong untuk tempoh yang lama, Malaysia yang merupakan ekonomi terbuka bakal menerima impak melalui saluran perdagangan meskipun berstatus pengeksport minyak dan gas.
“Walaupun permintaan domestik kita kukuh didorong oleh sektor pelancongan, perbelanjaan swasta dan pelaburan pusat data di Johor, ia hanya mampu menampung kelembapan eksport untuk tempoh tertentu. “Sekiranya perang berlanjutan lebih enam bulan, kerajaan mungkin terpaksa melihat semula kedudukan kewangan fiskal mereka, termasuk kemungkinan membuat pelarasan terhadap harga bahan api RON95,” katanya pada Forum Kepimpinan dan Perkongsian ASEAN 2026 di sini, semalam.
Tambahnya, kadar inflasi negara yang ketika ini diramal pada julat 1.5 hingga 2.5 peratus berkemungkinan besar akan melepasi paras 2.5 peratus sekiranya tekanan harga minyak global tidak menunjukkan tanda penyusutan. Sementara itu, Pengarah Strategi Pelaburan dan Ahli Ekonomi Negara IPPFA, Mohd Sedek Jantan berkata, perbincangan di peringkat nasional mungkin perlu melibatkan peranan Petronas dalam membantu mengurangkan beban kenaikan harga bahan api.
Beliau turut menarik perhatian mengenai bagaimana blok ASEAN terkesan secara berbeza akibat konflik tersebut, yang mana ketiadaan integrasi ekonomi yang pantas menuntut negara anggota untuk lebih berhati-hati dalam mengemudi hala tuju mereka.
“Kuasa besar dunia ketika ini dilihat bukan sahaja melibatkan ASEAN, malah sebenarnya bersaing dalam ASEAN. Kita perlu melihat gambaran lebih besar bagaimana inflasi ini memberi kesan kepada pertumbuhan perniagaan di sekitar Asia.
“Di Malaysia, kepimpinan kerajaan setakat ini cuba meminimumkan impak melalui kawalan harga keperluan asas termasuk pengangkutan awam, namun daya tahan ini akan terus diuji oleh faktor global,” katanya. Tambahnya, krisis rantaian bekalan dan inflasi yang mencabar ini memerlukan koordinasi yang lebih mantap antara negara anggota ASEAN bagi memastikan kestabilan ekonomi serantau tidak terjejas sehingga menarik blok tersebut ke arah perpecahan. – UTUSAN
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