I'm a markets quant and former Goldman Sachs partner. Here's how to trade Trump and global politics into year-end.
I believe Corbyn has no chance of sole power. Now, after Boris' deal, I also think 'No Deal' is off. This means we either have a Tory government with a Deal or we have a Labour-LibDem coalition government with Corbyn gone, as LibDem leader Jo Swinson will demand his head and a 2nd Referendum as coalition price .
As to Boris' chances, I often hear that 'the polls in 2017 got it wrong so don't trust them'. That misses the point. As the below chart shows, what broke the Conservatives in 2017 was their ridiculous Manifesto . Hence the momentum swung to Labour and was visible in the polls. Today, the momentum is on Boris' side.Big picture? Keep an eye on the rise of France/Macron, and the worst Franco-German relationship I can remember.
In the short term, I Berlin must soon change its paralyzed leadership. Keep an eye on the SPD's Parteitag . I can't see how they will want to stay in a coalition government while being destroyed at almost every regional election . I think the SPD will move into opposition after the party conference and a Center-Right/Green coalition will emerge in 2020, probably after an election and probably without Merkel.
Bottom Line: a lot of good news seems priced into German equities , which seems at odds with the political and economic reality at home. Calls for caution.For a typical US balanced fund , 2019 has been one of the best years since the 1990s. And with 70%+ of Q3 earnings coming in above expectations, hard data stands in stark contrast to the overall gloomy mood: Barron's autumn Money Manager survey came out at its most bearish in over 20 years.
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