How long will you live?
POPULATION forecasting is not simple. Demographers use mortality data—information about when people die and why—to estimate the likely life expectancy of people still alive. The UN, the World Health Organisation and others produce periodic forecasts that are fairly similar. Wealthy countries such as Japan, Switzerland and Australia have the highest life expectancies, though the estimates vary slightly depending on the methodology used.
By 2030, they think, South Korea will have seen the biggest gains in life expectancy for both men and women. A girl born there in 2030 is likely to live past her 90th birthday, seven years longer than one born in 2010. South Korean men are expected to live to just over 84, leapfrogging 18 other countries to the top of the ranking.South Korea’s trajectory has been remarkable. Its annual GDP per person is more than 20 times the level in 1960.
But the authors predict far less progress elsewhere. In some less wealthy countries, such as Macedonia and Serbia, average life expectancies are low and predicted to improve only modestly. Sweden and Japan can also expect relatively small gains, though that may be unavoidable since they already sit near the top of the table.
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