Learning To Live in the Valley of Uncertainty

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Learning To Live in the Valley of Uncertainty
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We simply don’t yet know much about the risks of reopening schools. But as schools open in other countries, we'll soon learn quite a bit more. dwallacewells writes

Children wearing masks ride bicycles on the National Mall in Washington D.C., the United States, May 18, 2020. Photo: Xinhua News Agency/Getty Images We’re committed to keeping our readers informed.

And the data may well not be at all complete, or at all reliable—this is what happens with new diseases, indeed what is still happening with COVID-19, particularly in places, like parts of the United States, with such insufficient testing. We have spent the last few months desperate to know everything—lecturing one another about mask wearing, and spending time on beaches or in parks, about the need for ventilators. But almost every single day, our best understanding of the disease and how to deal with it is being revised or even reversed, updated and complicated and caveated and questioned—learning, it seems, more each day about how little we know.

For now, the strongest arguments that reopening schools would be safe comes from anecdote. The eminent economist Emily Oster summarized one such story in her parenting newsletter: In general, the data about the susceptibility of children to covid is also encouraging, though far from definitive. One study found that school-age children were about a third as susceptible to the virus as adults, though, if in school, they may also have three times as many contacts with others, which roughly counteracts their reduced susceptibility.

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