Summers said that the current combination of high inflation and low unemployment rates is nearly certain to trigger a recession.
podcast, Summers said the current combination of a high inflation rate and a low unemployment rate was nearly certain to trigger a"We have had soft landings because we tightened at moments when the inflation rate was low and the unemployment rate was high," said Summers."We have not had soft landings for moments when the unemployment was below 4 [percent] and the inflation was well above 4 [percent] ... Never happened in the United States going back 60, 70 years.
Summers said that"the odds are probably better than half that a recession will start next year." He suggested that a recession could begin sooner if crude oil prices were to reach $150 per barrel in the fall due to"the geopolitical situation." Oil prices"I think this will depend a lot on what happens outside the economic realm," said Summers."It will also depend on how lucky and, you know, how skillful the [Federal Reserve] turns out to be ...
Summers, a Democrat, said factors that helped the economy reach the"overheated" state that caused high inflation included the large stimulus package that
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