Governor Gavin Newsom appears on track to defeat the recall election on Tuesday and remain in office.
The last poll featured in FiveThirtyEight's analysis that showed Newsom being removed was conducted by SurveyUSA from August 2 to August 4 among 613 likely voters. That poll showed 51 percent of respondents wanted Newsom removed compared to 40 percent who wanted to keep him in office. FiveThirtyEight gives SurveyUSA an"A" rating.
Elder, a conservative radio host, appears very likely to win the most votes among the 46 replacement candidates vying to succeed Newsom if he is removed from office. However, Newsom will only lose his job if 50 percent of votes cast say"yes" to the recall effort and based on the most up-to-date polling, that outcome is unlikely. If that does happen, the replacement ballot comes into play.have not nominated a backup candidate. If 50 percent of voters decide to recall Newsom, he will be removed from office and the candidate who wins the most votes on the replacement ballot will succeed him.
No results for the recall election have yet been announced and voting is not yet finished. Newsom has previously said Elder's suggestions of voter fraud were an"Republican gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder speaks to supporters during an Asian Rally for Yes Recall at the Asian Garden Mall in Little Saigon, Westminster, California, on September 4, 2021. Polls suggest Elder's bid to replace Governor Gavin Newsom will fail.
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