Australia remains in the grip of wet weather as the La Niña pattern lingers, but early forecasts predicting a rapid shift to El Niño are premature writes ABC meteorologist Tom Saunders.
Cool anomalies across the equatorial Pacific have eased during the past 30 days signalling La Niña has commenced weakening, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration .For Queensland and eastern NSW January to March are the wettest months of the year although the coastal strip can remain exceptionally wet into early winter due to East Coast Lows.
The Southern Ocean is also currently in a wet phase called a positive SAM that enhances rainfall over eastern Australia. This combined with the final sting of La Niña could be sufficient to support above-average rain during the coming months. The history of 10m floods along the Hawkesbury shows the peak flood period runs from February to August.The short answer is, it's too early to say for certain what phase the Pacific will enter, but we can rule out a fourth La Niña.
Not only would four in a row be historically unprecedented but a growing band of heat below the surface is not conducive for La Niña 's return.The last fully fledged El Niño was eight years ago and was responsible for Earth's warmest year on record.
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