Next week in the US, the last major reports will be released ahead of the September FOMC meeting. The general theme is likely to be higher inflation t
Next week in the US, the last major reports will be released ahead of the September FOMC meeting. The general theme is likely to be higher inflation than seen as of late. All eyes will also be on UK wage data, which will be key for locking in another rate hike from theUS: The general theme likely to be higher inflation
For inflation, we look for fairly big jumps in August’s month-on-month headline readings with upside risk relative to consensus predictions. Higher gasoline prices will be the main upside driver, but we also see the threat of a rebound in airfares and medical care costs, plus higher insurance prices. These factors are likely to also contribute to core CPI coming in at 0.3% MoM rather than the 0.2% figures we have seen in the previous two months.
Rounding out the reports, we expect industrial production to be much softer than the 1% jump seen last month. Manufacturing surveys continue to point to contraction, and weakness in the component could offset a bit of firmness in utilities and mining/drilling activities.There’s mounting evidence from surveys that price pressures in the UK are easing, the jobs market is cooling, and growth is slowing.
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