If you’re not excited about the big Arm IPO today, you’re not alone. It’s part of a slew of public offerings this season that can barely generate any enthusiasm. The headlines are pretty cautionary: “Investors Warily Await the Instacart and Arm IPOs.” “Arm’s IPO Smacks of Bankers’ Desperation.” Or how about, “Instacart Is In Free Fall As Its Valuation Plunges.” …
for the investing public to have gotten in at the peak of the"excitement" cycle. Instacart garnered a $39 billion valuation in a private fundraising round in 2021. Imagine if it instead had gone public that year, amid the meme stock Covid craze that drove the Nasdaq to all-time highs. It could have been a $50 billion listing, perhaps.the unfortunate venture capitalists who bought its overpriced shares two years ago so that you didn't have to.
The only way to really generate"alpha," so to speak, is to hold a broad basket of IPOs and hope that a few of them turn into Facebook, Google, and Nvidia.
And Arm's IPO today is being met with skepticism for a reason. The company did used to be one of the hotter stocks in the market, back before Softbank--best known for wildly overpaying for WeWork--bought it and took it private in 2016. Now, its core end market, smartphones, is much more mature and barely growing. Softbank is only floating
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