Oh Ei Sun says Johor may be a Barisan Nasional stronghold and Umno's birthplace, but victory there should not be mistaken for a nationwide resurgence.
PETALING JAYA: Barisan Nasional may be widely expected to win in the upcoming Johor state election, but analysts say a strong showing there should not be misconstrued as a nationwide resurgence for the coalition.
Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said Johor, the birthplace of Umno, remains a BN stronghold to the present day, making it an unreliable gauge of national sentiment.
“BN won 40 out of 56 seats in the Johor polls in March 2022, but it did not achieve a similar ratio of seats nationally in the general election that same year,” he told FMT. Oh pointed to Sabah as an example of how state election results often reflected local issues rather than broader national perception.
“DAP lost all its seats in Sabah last year, but that does not mean it will lose all its seats nationwide. Every state has its own electoral peculiarities. ” Despite its dominant performance in the 2022 Johor polls, BN won only nine of the 26 parliamentary seats in the southern state in GE15, compared to PH’s 14. The remaining three seats went to Perikatan Nasional and Muda .
The Johor assembly was dissolved on June 1, paving the way for the 16th state election to be held within the next 60 days. Multi-cornered clashes are widely anticipated, with BN and federal ally PH both set to go it alone, while opposition coalition PN will also vie for all 56 seats up for grabs.
Sivamurugan Pandian of Universiti Sains Malaysia said a BN win in the state polls may reflect voters’ approval of menteri besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi’s performance, rather than indicate a revival of support for BN at the national level. He also said Johor voters prioritised development, investment, jobs and governance — areas in which Onn Hafiz’s administration had largely excelled.
“A Johor victory would strengthen BN’s narrative, but it should not be interpreted as a direct prediction of national electoral trends. “Umno is strongest where its historical roots remain intact,” he said, referring to the party’s founding in May 1946 by Onn Jaafar, Onn Hafiz’s great-grandfather.
Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya said BN still has its work cut out in convincing voters beyond Johor that it has changed since its historic 2018 defeat, when the coalition lost power for the first time—even in its traditional stronghold of Johor. He said voters know that BN has extensive experience in governing the country, both at federal and state level.
However, Awang Azman, said this did not necessarily mean the coalition had resolved the challenges it faces in other states.
“Voters nationwide want to see if BN has changed from what it was in 2018. They still need to work hard to change their image. ” BN currently also leads the Perak and Pahang governments, but with the backing of PH assemblymen. It is also a part of the PH-led Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan governments.
In GE15, BN failed to win a single parliamentary seat in Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu. It suffered a similar fate in the six state elections in August 2023, being wiped out of the Kedah and Terengganu state assemblies.
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