“Just about everything in Trump’s political career is unprecedented,” one Biden adviser tells VF. “Who really knows?”
, on federal charges connected to his handling of classified government documents, will test that strategy yet again. The prevailing Biden team response on the political ramifications of Trump’s deepening legal entanglements has and will wisely continue to be no response, at least publicly. To say anything of substance would risk playing into Trump’s spin that the indictments are politically motivated, designed to damage the leading contender for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
And the truth is that even the president’s most trusted aides can’t know where this all leads. Trump, who has pleaded not guilty, is scheduled to go on trial in New York in March 2024, which would add an enormous, volatile spectacle to the election cycle. “Just about everything in Trump’s political career is unprecedented,” a Biden adviser says. “Who really knows?”
Trump, counterintuitively, would bring an element of predictability in 2024, which is why a rematch with the former president is viewed as the Biden team’s preferred contest. “Against Trump, it’s an easy contrast, a known contrast,” says’s winning White House runs. “We have the receipts of what Trump is and who Trump is, and we know what he gets—he’s a 46% candidate in multiple elections. I don’t know what’s ceiling is. Is it higher than 46%, 47%? It’s possible.
All the legal uncertainty surrounding the former president complicates the picture somewhat. Two things seem fairly certain, though. Trump will continue to try to use the prosecutions as badges of martyrdom, and his hard-core followers will buy into that narrative. Maybe that will be enough to allow Trump to again emerge from a fractured Republican primary field.
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