For now, Biden is emboldened. No prominent Democrat will cross him and he will feel especially motivated if Trump is back on the campaign trail
‘Sitting presidents are rarely forced aside.’T
At the same time, Biden will easily win a Democratic primary if he runs again. Sitting presidents are rarely forced aside. The top candidates in a hypothetical primary don’t want to take him on – almost all of themof waging a direct challenge. This is understandable, since no single governor or senator has the ability to defeat Biden, one-on-one. Democrats look warily to examples like Ted Kennedy, who ran a primary against President Jimmy Carter and was soundly beaten.
If Biden decides against another term, there will be a healthy open primary for the nomination. One problem for the Democrats is that the obvious frontrunner will be Biden’s vice-president, Kamala Harris. Though his poll numbers are slipping, Biden can still make the credible case that he can defeat Donald Trump a second time if Trump chooses to run again. Harris’s polling numbers are as frail as Biden’s, and she ran a very poor campaign for the presidency in 2019.
Part of Harris’s weakness is that, as a California senator, she was never battle-tested in a state where Democrats don’t dominate. Both JB Pritzker, the governor of Illinois, and Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, have the Harris problem: they run states where Republicans are increasingly impotent. As executives, they can argue, unlike legislators, they have to make tough decisions each day that affect millions of people.
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