After a decade of golden years under Daniel Andrews, his replacement is facing a storm of problems that have trashed Labor’s vote.
In Labor’s “red wall”, a block of seats in Melbourne’s west and north-western suburbs, have given their vote to the party for workers for generations. But the electorates, where Labor MPs were once handed primary votes in the 60s, are now viewed as those at risk of calling time on Premier Jacinta Allan.. Labor’s primary vote collapsed below 30 per cent, slipping to the bottom of the “Danslide” built by her predecessor, Daniel Andrews.
“I still don’t know if there’s a long-term strategy or if it’s dealing day to day with the punches, administering in the moment,” one party insider said. “I don’t know where the narrative writers are.” It suggests Allan could be falling victim to the “glass cliff”, where women are promoted ahead of a downturn and the chance of failure is high, given inflationary pressures and debt.
Allan signalled that families would be a priority early in her leadership, and has since spoken forcefully about women’s health and gendered violence. This week, pointing to $400 rebates for every state school student in this year’s budget, she said her focus was on supporting struggling households. “When all the things are off, it’s risky,” they said. “There’s not one thing they’d need to correct and then everything’s fine.”The affordability crisis has made the outer west and north-western suburbs a particular concern for five sources, speaking anonymously for fear of political reprisals, even though Labor maintains strong margins in the electorates after surviving double-digit swings at the 2022 election.
A government insider said there was a sense Labor had underspent in the west and north-west, forcing local members to “go out and sell a shit sandwich” to their voters. The war in Gaza should also not be discounted as a factor in those communities, where there are higher proportions of people are Arabic or Muslim, they said.
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