‘It’s really tricky’: How to deal with COVID-19 in 2023, whatever happens

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‘It’s really tricky’: How to deal with COVID-19 in 2023, whatever happens
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While we’re all living with the virus now, there is little evidence the pandemic is close to an end. New research examining almost 1000 different COVID-19 scenarios for Victoria in 2023 has laid out possible strategies for the state’s response.

New research examining almost 1000 different COVID-19 scenarios for Victoria in 2023 has laid out possible strategies for the state’s response, including swift moves to thwart any new dangerous variants and beefing up vaccination coverage.

Although the work is not a prediction of the future, all of these scenarios saw more than a million infections, with deaths ranging from about 2000 to 20,000. More than 6600 Victorians have died of COVID-19 to date. “Before we had other options it was much clearer, particularly in a country like Australia, that was pursuing a zero-COVID policy, what the right thing to do was,” he said.

“Ongoing good uptake of vaccines in this model reduces deaths by around 30 per cent on average, but it also reduces pressure on health services and the need for other public health and social measures, which meant that when we looked at the costs, often ongoing vaccinations saved money,” Szanyi said.

“Most of us who have been following what’s happening in Australia and overseas for three years now understand that the optimal strategy is the vaccine-plus strategy. You get as many people vaccinated as possible ... On top of that, you add in some public health measures,” Esterman said. ​There are currently 324 COVID patients in Victorian hospitals, with 14 in intensive care and six on a ventilator, according to the latest update from the state’s chief health officer on Friday.

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