Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral?

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Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral?
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There is surprisingly little sign that the end of emergency labour-market programmes has increased the number of people looking for a job

The recovery from the pandemic has brought about a startling change: prices and wages are both surging. American hourly pay rose by 4.6% in the year to September while consumer-price inflation of 5.4% is more than wiping out those gains. In Germany inflation has reached 4.1% and the main public-sector union is asking for a pay increase of 5%. Wages and prices have even picked up modestly in Japan.

A hazy understanding of what is driving wages up is making life harder for central banks. Most have argued that high inflation is temporary. But excessive wage growth could be the next factor to drive up prices, especially if workers demand higher pay in the expectation of future rises in the cost of living—an insurance that exacerbates the very thing it seeks to offset.

In the popular imagination workers’ share of the economic pie has room to grow at the expense of profits. But recent research suggests that labour’s share of the value created by firms has in fact been fairly stable in most rich countries during recent decades. We estimate that it has already risen by one percentage point on average in big rich countries during the pandemic. There may not be very much scope for further increases.

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