Though European surges have been a reliable precursor to stateside waves throughout most of the pandemic, the tea leaves are more ambiguous this time, writes ManvBrain
Photo-Illustration: Intelligencer; Photo: Dave Pedley/Getty Images for SXSW COVID is like Michael Myers in Halloween: just when you think it’s finally out of the picture, it comes back to threaten you again. Coronavirus cases in the U.S. have been plummeting for weeks, and hospitalizations are near an all-time low.
Because these countries have experienced the pandemic so differently from the U.S. until now, it’s difficult to draw conclusions about what their surges mean for America in the short term. Europe is a better comparison. Like the U.S., it has been pummeled by wave after wave. This winter’s Omicron surge hit the continent hard, but once it peaked, most experts expected infection rates to quickly fall as the population picked up natural immunity.
The case for not worrying One voice counseling calm is New York Times science reporter Carl Zimmer, who recently noted that epidemiologists don’t believe that BA.2 will cause a massive wave of cases. Among the cited reasons: our current COVID-19 vaccines are effective against the BA.2 variant, just like they were against BA.1. And the millions of people who were infected with the original Omicron strain have antibodies that protect against BA.2.
The case for worrying Among the opposing camp is Eric Topol, a professor of genomics at the Scripps Research Institute in San Diego. “Great to see U.S. COVID-19 hospitalizations down to 23,000 and approaching their pandemic low,” he wrote this week. “But indicators from the new wave in Europe and U.S. wastewater surveillance suggest this may be short-lived.”
Which is not to say that the Europeans have played their cards flawlessly; they may have worsened the onset of their BA.2 wave by prematurely lifting COVID-19 restrictions. Unfortunately, the United States is following the same path. 49 states have abandoned indoor mask mandates, with the last holdout, Hawaii, set to join the club on March 26.
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A New Covid Wave Is Spreading In Europe — Here’s Why The U.S. Should Pay AttentionI am a London-based reporter for Forbes covering breaking news. Previously, I have worked as a reporter for a specialist legal publication covering big data and as a freelance journalist and policy analyst covering science, tech and health. I have a master’s degree in Biological Natural Sciences and a master’s degree in the History and Philosophy of Science from the University of Cambridge. Follow me on Twitter theroberthart or email me at rhartforbes.com
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