The Bitcoin Rainbow chart projected a 2025 cycle top of nearly $200k for BTC, and the NUPL showed decreased sell pressure in recent months.
Rainbow Chart is a fun, uncomplicated way for investors to get an idea of where BTC is in its cycle.This smooths out some of the intense volatility Bitcoin has seen in the past decade, and the distinct color bands give investors an idea of market sentiment at a glance.Looking back at the past two halvings, we can see that prices take a few months to get the bull run going after the halving event. This cycle was different from the others so far.
Public sentiment is lukewarm and prices are sitting a stone’s throw away from ATH. Things can heat up quickly and get more bullish a year into the future. In the past cycle, the cycle top came 546 days after the halving. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could form this cycle’s top in October 2025.AMBCrypto looked at the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss metric. This metric indicates the total amount of profit/loss in all the coins, represented as a ratio. Values above 0.7 generally indicate a market top.
In March 2024, the NUPL metric reached 0.62, representing overheated conditions and increased selling pressure from profit-taking. However, it has steadily trended downward since then.Hence, there is more room for prices to expand upward. Additionally, the NUPL can remain in the area above 0.5 for months at a time. The latter half of 2020 is a prominent example, and the same could repeat in 2024.
Overall, long-term investors can choose to accumulate more BTC or simply HODL their bags. Continued price gains are likely to arrive, but it could take a few more months.Akashnath Sumukar works as a Senior Journalist at AMBCrypto. Based in Chennai, India, he has been an avid follower of the cryptocurrency market since Bitcoin’s boom and bust cycle of 2017. A graduate in Chemical Engineering, he is an expert in technical analysis.
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