The debate about another 'big one' in Istanbul is raging. This is what the experts think
Istanbul is one of the world’s most picturesque cities located along the banks of the Bosphorous - a globally strategic waterway that divides Europe and Asia. What lies beneath the city though, doesn’t paint as beautiful a picture.
He is one of Turkey’s most prominent earthquake experts and remains measured about what might lie ahead for Istanbul. In addition to this misunderstanding, the two big earthquakes in the Marmara Sea — which were triggered by the North Anatolian fault line in the late 19th Century and early 20th Century — have decreased the probability of a big earthquake in Istanbul, Usumezsoy says.
"Strong earthquakes occur when the fault zone becomes locked. Then tectonic strain accumulates, and the seismic energy is released in an earthquake,"a leading academic for the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel , who conducted a comprehensive study in the summer on the fault lines in the Marmara Sea.
Nearly 20 years before the 1912 earthquake, in 1894, the North Anatolian fault also broke on its south eastern edge, where it was moving from the Armutlu Peninsula westward to the Cinarcik Basin, in the Marmara Sea. That means the North Anatolian fault’s southern branch, which is more active and under pressure, is moving further away from Istanbul. Despite Usumezsoy’s assurances, after the recent earthquake in Silivri Basin, the big Istanbul earthquake debate resurfaced as both ordinary folks and experts passionately argue about its potential timing and magnitude.
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