OPINION: The biggest threat to Trump's re-election is an economic downturn that reverses the recent job and wage gains and triggers a stock-market selloff.
STANFORD, Calif. — With the presidential primaries underway, everyone is wondering whether President Donald Trump will be re-elected in November. Opinion polls show that the ability to beat Trump ranks high among Democratic primary voters’ top priorities.
In an Oval Office meeting at the time, I tried to persuade the president’s political team that, despite his recent successes, he needed a better strategy for responding to a mild recession that had begun in the latter part of 1990. I reminded them that even Britain’s victory in World War II had not spared Winston Churchill defeat in an election held less than three months later.
Trump can also point to trade deals like the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which will offset some of the damage from his tariffs. He has secured funding to rebuild the military, and appointed two conservative Supreme Court justices and many more federal district and appeals court judges. Meanwhile, the leading Democratic contenders to have emerged are Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. National polls suggest that any of the Democrats currently running would beat Trump. But those predictions could be misleading, because they do not account for Trump’s outperformance among actual voters in the states that he needs to win the Electoral College.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg has already spent hundreds of millions of dollars on advertising — more than all the other candidates combined — and is willing to spend $1 billion to defeat Trump, even if he does not secure the Democratic nomination.
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