Citi Australia’s chief economist Josh Williams said while it agreed with the RBA that headline inflation had peaked at 7.8 per cent in the December quarter, it would stay above existing forecasts through to 2024.
That will also keep Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe’s language “to the hawk side,” Mr Williams said, pencilling in a 0.25 percentage point increase to the official cash rate at next week’s meeting, taking it to 3.35 per cent.
Underlying inflation rose a 1.7 per cent over the quarter to 6.9 per cent annually, well above the RBA’s forecast of 6.5 per cent through the year, suggesting strong momentum in prices. “Measures of labour market tightness such as the employment-to-population ratio and the unemployment rate could ease by up to 0.5 percentage points.
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