In 2019, Boeing's cash flow will fall $5 billion or $9 billion below its January forecast
A United Airlines Boeing 787 Dreamliner sits parked at the terminal at San Francisco International Airport on April 24, 2019 in San Francisco, California. Boeing's first quarter profits fell 21 percent following the Boeing 737 Max technical issues that have grounded all of the Max aircraft around the world. Two Boeing 737 Max 8 aircraft crashed in a six months period. The most important thing to come out of Boeing's April 24 conference call is that it withdrew its forecast for 2019.
Boeing's free cash flow will fall $5 billion in my most likely scenario and $9 billion in my pessimistic one -- below the $17 billion to $17.5 billion forecast Boeing provided in January. Will Boeing be able to convince U.S. and international regulators that it has identified and solved the problems that contributed to the 737 MAX crashes?
Beyond what is covered by insurance, how much will Boeing need to pay the families of the victims of the 737 MAX crashes and the airlines for revenues lost due to grounding of the 737 MAX? Aboulafia strikes me as optimistic about Boeing's ability to get the 737 MAX back on track. As he told me in an April 25 interview,"I think the FAA will work with Boeing and approve the fix not long after Boeing finalizes it, but international reciprocity has taken a blow. Still, there are promising signs that international regulators are coordinating, with relatively low levels of dissent, so far.
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