The International Monetary Fund raised its 2023 global growth outlook slightly due to “surprisingly resilient” demand in the United States and Europe, an easing of energy costs and the reopening of China’s economy. | Reuters
“We have to sort of be prepared to expect the unexpected, but it could well represent a turning point, with growth bottoming out and then inflation declining,” Gourinchas told reporters of the 2023 outlook.In its 2023 GDP forecasts, the IMF said it now expected U.S. GDP growth of 1.4%, up from 1.0% predicted in October and following 2.0% growth in 2022.
The Fund added that China’s growth will “fall to 4.5% in 2024 before settling at below 4% over the medium term amid declining business dynamism and slow progress on structural reforms.” Even with China’s reopening, the IMF is predicting that oil prices will fall in both 2023 and 2024 due to lower global growth compared to 2022.The IMF said there were both upside and downside risks to the outlook with built-up savings creating the possibility of sustained demand growth, particularly for tourism, and an easing of labor market pressures in some advanced economies helping to cool inflation, lessening the need for aggressive rate hikes.
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