Ifo Institute cuts German growth outlook for 2022, lifts forecast for 2023
The Ifo Institute has lowered its 2022 growth forecast for the German economy by 1.4 percentage points and raised it by 1.4 percentage points for 2023. Following the revision, Ifo forecasts German GDP will expand 3.7% next year and 2.9% in 2023, after 2.5% growth in 2021.
GDP is expected to contract 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared with the previous quarter. In the first quarter of 2022, the economy is seen stagnating. The inflation rate should initially rise again from 3.1% this year to 3.3% next year. The cost increases associated with supply bottlenecks will play a driving role, as will a delayed adjustment to higher energy and commodity prices, Ifo said.
The unemployment rate will decline from a projected 5.7% in 2021 to 5.2% in 2022 and 4.9% in 2023. The number of people in employment is therefore expected to increase by around 409,000 in 2022 and by 311,000 in 2023, having been 97,000 higher on average in 2021 than in the previous year.
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