With the death of its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner private military company now faces an uncertain future.
Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin, the likely true military head of the group, were killed when their plane crashed last week, killing all ten people onboard. Following its June mutiny, Wagner left Ukraine but remains a powerful force with thousands of fighters scattered across Belarus and Africa. With August's plane crash essentially decapitating the group, speculation remains as to what comes next for Russia's most infamous mercenary group.
The number of benefits accrued from Wagner is so beneficial to Russia that President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to completely liquidate it, according to many experts. “Africa is key in Putin’s strategy in Ukraine: to prove he is not isolated, to circumvent Western economic sanctions, and rebuild his forces via Wagner,” she said. “Prigozhin’s uprising required a clarification on the nature of Russia’s partnership with African countries. It’s done.”
If taken over by the military, Wagner fighters will be presented with the dilemma of whether to stay or leave the group, possibly torn between loyalties toward their old leaders and the new. Blank imagines that many may leave but that those who stay will likely be loyal to the new leadership. The mercenary group appears to have a future in Belarus, where many were exiled after their failed June mutiny. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko denounced Polish and Baltic calls to expel the group as"stupid" and pledged that they would stay.
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