This year's presidential race will be fought on electoral terrain that would have been unthinkable four years ago, before everything blew up
When President Barack Obama launched his 2012 reelection campaign, he did it with back-to-back rallies in a pair of logical places: Virginia and Ohio. The two essential swing states, with 31 electoral votes between them, were vital to Obama’s chances of winning a second term.
You can argue about whether Minnesota—a cradle of liberalism that produced Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale and Paul Wellstone—is a pipe dream for Trump in 2020. Or whether Texas—where Republicans hold all nine statewide elected offices, both Senate seats and both chambers of the Legislature—will truly be in play in November.
With that feat, Trump shattered the presidential map we’ve grown accustomed to. The most immediate consequence was to blow up the idea of a “Blue Wall,” a term applied to a northern tier of 18 states, stretching from coast to coast, that appeared to provide a structural advantage for a Democratic nominee. Going into the election, it seemed almost unbreachable, which was a key factor driving the belief that Hillary Clinton was on a glide path to the presidency.
The idea that Ohio might not be at the center of the presidential election universe seems preposterous at first. Similar demographic forces are combining to turn longtime red states Arizona and Georgia—neither of which has been a core battleground state before—into two of the most competitive in 2020. Arizona has voted Democratic just once in 70 years; Georgia just once in the past 36 years. At best, in recent elections they’ve been viewed as so-called “stretch” states that might come through for Democrats only if the stars aligned.
In a secretly recorded audio released last year, the state’s House Speaker, Dennis Bonnen, conceded as much, saying Trump is “killing us in the urban-suburban districts.”
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