The harm from endemic covid may eventually fall somewhere between that of influenza and the other common coronaviruses
-2 will end up more like the other endemic coronaviruses than flu. Jabs may still be needed periodically for the most vulnerable but Dr Heymann thinks that even in bad covid seasons deaths may not get anywhere as high as those from influenza .
Immunity is hard to measure. The immune system is complex and poorly understood. Both the quantity and quality of the antibodies it produces matter. “Up to six months after vaccination, the immune system is still in the process of optimising and perfecting its response,” says Ali Ellebedy, an immunologist at the Washington University School of Medicine in Missouri.
Vaccines have offered about a third of humanity a shortcut to endemicity, bypassing sections of the path that would otherwise have been far more deadly. Some 3.8bn people have had at least one shot, and 2.8bn are fully vaccinated. Add them to those who have survived infection and it looks as if over half the world’s population boasts some degree of immunity to covid.
At present, the world’s collective level of immunity to covid is nowhere near that for other endemic respiratory diseases. That is because all humans are exposed to older endemic diseases repeatedly through their lives, particularly as children. Every exposure offers a new chance to train the immune system. Dr Ellebedy says it will take decades for humanity to reach a comparable level of immunity to covid.
Merck expects to supply 10m courses of the drug by the end of 2021. Pricing will be tiered, and so it will be affordable across the planet. Results from trials of similar drugs from Pfizer, Roche and Atea Pharmaceuticals could add to the antiviral arsenal.
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