Here’s how NBC News calls races on election night, the steps it takes to verify results and the answers to some frequently asked questions.
How does NBC News project the outcomes of races?
Early on election night, the NBC News Decision Desk uses exit poll data to determine whether uncompetitive races can be called. Most races are called based on analyses of precinct- and county-level vote returns. The analyses also examine differences between early and Election Day votes. In close contests, a careful analysis of how much of the vote has not been counted is a crucial part of the process. No race is projected until the Decision Desk is at a minimum 99.5% confident of the winner.
NBC News will not project a winner in a race until after the last scheduled poll-closing time in a state.Here are the key Decision Desk calls and characterizations our audience can expect to hear from NBC News on election night:This characterization covers two scenarios. The first is that there might be a significant margin for one of the candidates, but we have not yet met our statistical standards to project the race.
NBC News has projected that a candidate has won the race, but the results are close enough that the outcome may depend on a potential recount and/or confirmation that the results that have been reported are accurate.When a party has gained a majority of seats in the Senate, the Decision Desk will project control for that party.The House Estimate is a projection of the makeup of the House of Representatives as a whole.
On Election Day, votes will be tabulated in all 50 states for statewide races, ballot measures and all 435 House races. Interviewers also conduct in-person national and state exit polls, the only survey of real voters in the country, measuring who voted and why they made their choices. About 2,500 interviewers will be working for us through the NEP to collect county- and precinct-level votes and to conduct exit polls.
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