How the 2024 election could decide the fate of the Russia-Ukraine war

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How the 2024 election could decide the fate of the Russia-Ukraine war
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Influential Ukrainian security expert Gerashchenko_en said increased assistance is needed now for Ukraine to avoid needing it 'for the next decade or longer.'

's government and help determine how much Western military assistance it gets going forward, if the war hasn't ended by Inauguration Day 2025. And the election matters just as much, if not more, for charting U.S. foreign policy beyond Ukraine. The stakes are especially high for Biden, who has tied his foreign policy legacy to Ukraine's stand against Russia.

At this point, Biden's long-term strategy for Ukraine—preserving its sovereignty and handing Putin a geopolitical defeat, without deploying U.S. troops or triggering a larger confrontation with Moscow—hinges on the president winning reelection. Biden needs more time to hold the NATO alliance together and keep military aid flowing to Ukraine.

Senior aides to Biden and allies outside the administration offer a blunt analysis of the president's calculus. They argue that the money spent on Ukraine—a fraction of the $2 trillion-plus the United States spent on the war in Afghanistan—is a bargain price for turning Russia into a weakened pariah state without risking any U.S. lives in the process.

"We have the type of ally in Ukraine that we never had in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria or Libya," John Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine during the George W. Bush administration, and who now heads the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, tells."When we offered Zelensky a ride out of town, he said, 'Send me ammunition.' In Kabul, when the

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