Russian authorities have banned words like “war” or “invasion” to describe what they want to call a “special operation” in Ukraine.
Take a walk through Moscow these days, and you will see giant, gaudy light displays—entire galleries and faux building façades composed of light bulbs. You will see gleaming arrays of luxury goods, messengers scurrying with cubic backpacks, and restaurants that fill up late in the day and stay full well into the night.
We weren’t meeting to discuss the story of Yudin’s arrest and beating—these stories are plentiful—but because Yudin is one of the most insightful analysts of contemporary Russian politics and society. “I think now is a turning point,” he said. We were talking about the end of the world as we know it: Would it be the end of’s long reign or, well, the end of the world? “If they can’t secure a military victory—at least take Kyiv and Kharkiv—then Putin will shift to treating U.S.
Even the shrewdest dictators—which usually means the most paranoid—often come to overestimate their reach, their popularity, and their wisdom. They surround themselves with sycophants, shut out the rest of the world, and usually, sooner or later, make a misstep. Over his twenty-two years at the helm, Putin has winnowed down his circle of interlocutors. In the past two years, fear ofhas forced him into near-total isolation.
As we wrapped up our late lunch on Sunday, Yudin argued for his right to pick up the tab. “I have to spend this anyway,” he said, because Russian currency would soon become worthless. “Tomorrow, markets will collapse,” he predicted, and then Russians would begin to grasp the scale of the catastrophe that the country was facing. The next morning, the markets did crash; the Central Bank of Russia raised its interest rate to twenty per cent and froze the opening of its stock market.
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