Russia's invasion could destroy Ukraine's sovereignty or Vladimir Putin’s regime. The outlines of a solution that leaves both intact are murkier.
Russia's invasion could destroy Ukraine's sovereignty or Vladimir Putin’s regime. The outlines of a solution that leaves both intact are murkier.capitulation from Kyiv. Now, even if he ultimately succeeds in removing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, he'll almost certainly face a prolonged, well-armed and motivated insurgency — a bad outcome for Russia and a worse one for Ukraine.
Still, Putin’s demands and demeanor — denouncing Zelensky’s administration as "Nazis" and insisting on the full "demilitarization" of a country he is invading — are not those of man who's ready to cut a deal. Putin's calculus will only change if he comes under sufficient pressure at home — due to battlefield casualties and economic hardship — that he feels continuing the war is more perilous for him than ending it, says Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations.Putin's other core demand, that Ukraine declare itself neutral and rule out future membership in NATO, has long been a nonstarter in Kyiv. It’s unclear whether battlefield realities could change that.
But having described his mission in Ukraine as one of “deNazification” , and spoken at length about Ukraine’s rightful place in Russia’s orbit, Putin would seem to have set the bar for success, at minimum, at the installation of a loyal government. There, Putin does have an advantage, however. His control over Russian media is such that he might believe he can sell a modest outcome — a new status for the eastern "republics" and a promise on NATO, perhaps — as a victory, despite the high costs.
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