Here’s FiveThirtyEight's guide to how the Nevada caucuses will work—plus how our primary forecast handles all their quirks, and what that might mean for the race moving forward.
) is deemed nonviable, and his or her supporters can thus “realign.” They can choose to join another candidate’s group, or they can simply go home. If their first-choice candidate was justnonviable — say, he received 14 percent of the first alignment vote — they can also try to persuade supporters of other nonviable candidates to join their group, in a last-ditch effort to become viable. Voters in viable candidate groupings are locked in, however, and cannot realign.
Realignment is also where early voters’ full ballots will come into play. Because they are not physically present, early voters’ second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-place picks are used to realign them if their first-choice candidate isn’t still in the running. For instance, if an early voter’s first choice is Sen. Amy Klobuchar, her second choice is Sen.
says that Sen. Bernie Sanders is expected to win 35 percent of the vote in Nevada, that’s a projection of his final alignment vote., but here are the three most important things to keep in mind: Other things being equal, the model assumes that larger groups will have an easier time attracting new supporters.
Conversely, just-barely-nonviable groups will have a harder time doing so in an effort to get over the viability hump. In some simulations of the model, these groups are successful at wooing supporters of other nonviable candidates; other times, they fail to do so.to estimate how close the candidates are to one another along a number of ideological and other dimensions. This is a fairly rough method, so our assumptions are fairly conservative — i.e.
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