How early primary polls foreshadowed election surprises like Obama’s rise And Trump’s win. Via FiveThirtyEight:
We included everyone we had polling data for, no matter how likely or unlikely they were to run., he did lead in primary polls during the second half of 2015, which means that him winning the GOP nomination maybe shouldn’t have come as such a surprise. In fact, McCain was the only Republican during the 1972-to-2016 period who won the nomination without ever having led in the national polls in the year before the primary.
So now we’ve gone through every cycle from 1972 to 2016 and found that the early polling leader often went on to win a party’s nomination, and the early polls, once they were adjusted for name recognition, often foreshadowed the rise of notable candidates. In the final part of our series, we’ll move beyond the descriptive and dive deep into the trends that emerge from the entire 1972 to 2016 period, drawing some statistical conclusions about how meaningful early primary polls really are.
To make this adjustment, we divided a candidate’s polling average by their level of name recognition, which helped us identify candidates who might have had a small national profile but were doing relatively well among the voters who knew about them.
Specifically, we created a name-recognition scale that ranges from 20 to 100 percent. In some cases, we used our own knowledge of history to fine-tune the scores. For example, a candidate like John Kerry, who had been the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee in 2004, would almost certainly be universally known in the 2008 cycle, when he was included in a handful of surveys.
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