On a year-over-year basis, Case-Shiller's 20-city index is expected to post the largest gain since January.
Economists expect that home prices notched another month of gains in August. Higher mortgage rates could tamp down such increases—or contribute to declines—in the coming months.
But further headwinds could be brewing as mortgage rates remain near 8%. S&P Dow Jones Indices Managing Director Craig J. Lazzara last month characterized July’s reading as “consistent with an optimistic view of future results”—but added that “the market’s gains could be truncated by increases in mortgage rates or by general economic weakness.”
Case-Shiller’s month-over-month gains may be a better indication of more current home price trends. The index’s lagging nature means that the full impact from the recent rise in mortgage rates won’t be reflected in this month’s data release. At 0.6%, the expected monthly increase in the 20-city index would be higher than average, but the slowest seasonally-adjusted gain since March.
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