While Black Friday will mark a return to familiar holiday shopping patterns, uncertainty still remains.
The U.S. job market remains strong, consumer spending is resilient and inflation has been slowing. But elevated prices for food, rent, gasoline and other household costs have taken a toll on shoppers.
"I am shopping less," Dalencia said, noting she will spend about $700 for holiday gifts this year, one-third less than last year. This year's trends are a contrast from a year ago when consumers were buying early out of fear of not getting what they needed amid clogs in the supply network. Stores didn't have to discount much because they were struggling to bring in items.
Against today's economic backdrop, the National Retail Federation -- the largest retail trade group -- expects holiday sales growth will slow to a range of 6% to 8%, from the blistering 13.5% growth of a year ago. However, these figures, which include online spending, aren't adjusted for inflation so real spending could even be down from a year ago.
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