“Just because a company’s past earnings have grown at a brisk pace doesn’t mean they will continue growing at that pace in the future,” MktwHulbert writes.
You should be skeptical of the growth story that periodically captures stock investors’ attention. That’s because the companies that Wall Street believes will grow the fastest in the future rarely live up to the lofty expectations investors put on them.
Or so the growth stock rationale goes. The Achilles’ Heel of this rationale is the assumption that growth stocks’ earnings will actually grow faster than for value stocks. More often than not, this isn’t the case. Two researchers at Verdad, the money-management firm, recently updated this Journal of Finance study to focus on the 25 years since it was published. They are Brian Chingono, Verdad’s director of quantitative research, and Greg Obenshain, partner and director of credit at the firm. They reached the same conclusion as the earlier study: “[W]e found little to no evidence of persistence in earnings growth, beyond chance, over the long term,” they concluded.
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