Some people in Florida were surprised and left unprepared by Hurricane Ian’s sudden shift south
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is working to improve communication of uncertain, fast-changing threats, but the task is not straightforward. It involves refining messages and optimizing graphical information to simplify the complex for very diverse audiences and keeping them apprised of important changes. The latter was critical in the case of Ian since small deviations in the predicted track would significantly alter which communities would be affected.
“It can trick your brain into thinking you can relax and you may not pay as much attention to the forecast,” Eosco said. “And so it’s possible people didn’t hear that message.” It wasn’t until Tuesday morning, while Ian was passing over western Cuba — that the Hurricane Center extended a hurricane warning southward to cover the stretch of southwestern Florida coastline that would soon be devastated. Even then, the centerline for the predicted storm track passed through Tampa and wasn’t over Fort Myers until 11 p.m. that night.
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