Here comes the slowdown: Texas’ sky-high sales tax growth falls back to earth

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Here comes the slowdown: Texas’ sky-high sales tax growth falls back to earth
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In November, monthly sales tax allocations for all taxing entities rose 7.1% compared with a year earlier, the Texas comptroller reported. That’s less than...

For 17 straight months, Plano posted strong gains in sales tax revenue -- often by double-digits. That changed in September with a year-over-year decline.Signs of a soft landing are emerging in Texas — on the spending side of the ledger.rose 7.1% compared with a year earlier

“When things were going gangbusters, the question in the back of everyone’s mind was, ‘How much longer is this sustainable?’” saidPlano’s senior budget manager. “Everyone knows it can’t be forever. Now we’re at a time when things are starting to turn.” In the first 11 months of 2022, sales tax gains for all Texas cities rose an average of 14.1%, the comptroller reported. But in November alone, sales tax payments rose an average of 5.9% — not even keeping up with inflation.

Arlington, which has one of the region’s top entertainment districts, had been racking up giant gains in sales tax revenue. There’s been strong demand for live events, including concerts, Dallas Cowboys games and other sports, said Arlington city managerFrom January through November, sales tax allocations to Arlington rose over 24%. But in November alone, Arlington’s allocation was only 1.5% higher than a year ago, which isn’t close to matching inflation.

He’s more concerned about the effects of inflation. For some recent construction projects, bids were coming in 30% higher than budgeted, often because of supply shortages. That’s prompted Arlington to curtail the scope of some projects and use value engineering to close the gaps. There are still strong indicators in the economy, especially with the labor market and consumer spending. For October, advance estimates of U.S. retail sales were higher than many expected, indicating that consumers continue to spend.That’s a year-over-year gain of 8.3%. Inflation contributes much of that, and the annual growth rate is slightly lower than it was in September. Adams said the October annual gain was the smallest since April.

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