Experts warn that people should develop hurricane preparedness plans early ahead of a projected busy hurricane season.
Bell said several factors are influencing the agency’s above-average forecast, including warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. Warm ocean temperatures are one of the key ingredients that fuel big tropical storms and hurricanes, and Bell said warmer-than-average conditions are expected to persist in these basins for the foreseeable future.
NOAA’s forecast shows neutral conditions at present, but there’s a 40 percent probability that La Niña could develop later this summer, which would be “strong enough to further increase Atlantic hurricane activity,” Bell said. “The Atlantic is a little different from some of the other hurricane basins in that the historical record is dominated by this multidecadal variability and the El Niño/La Niña signal,” he said. “Those are really dominant signals and they are controlling the strength of the hurricane season.”
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