Democrats began the 2020 election cycle with only a narrow path back to the Senate majority. But entering the final week before the election, there are competitive races everywhere
North Carolina GOP Sen. Thom Tillis is still slightly trailing behind Democrat Cal Cunningham, despite revelations of Cunningham's extramarital affair. | Tom Williams-Pool/Getty Images.
Republicans have poured money into Alaska, Georgia, Kansas and South Carolina in October to shore up their red wall, while races in more expected battlegrounds like Iowa, North Carolina, Maine and Arizona are continuing to see record-shattering spending. Republicans concede Democrats have more paths back to power given the sheer number of competitive states, but the GOP still has a relatively straightforward, if challenging, path to hanging on.
“What was a significant downturn for most Republican candidates over the last couple weeks has sort of rebounded a bit,” Holmes said. “All of these competitive races are within the margin of error, and you could have a whole bunch of scenarios play out on Election Day. The options are basically endless.”
“The map is very tight. It is on a knife's edge,” said one Republican strategist working on Senate races, who requested anonymity to speak candidly. Senate Leadership Fund is spending in 11 states, only one of which, Michigan, is an offensive target. The National Republican Senatorial Committee is spending in seven states and recently added a nearly $500,000 coordinated campaign expenditure to boost GOP Sen. John Cornyn in Texas, the committee’s first spending there.
The late spending is similar to 2016, when a massive influx of GOP money in states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania helped Republicans preserve their narrow majority. Democrats are better funded across the map this cycle, however, and Trump is polling well below Democrat Joe Biden.
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