The probability of a recession in 2023 is between 45% and 55%, experts say.
After nearly three years of unprecedented economic and geopolitical shocks, experts are effectively throwing up their hands and admitting they don't know what's coming next.The probability of a recession in 2023 is between 45% and 55%, per the authors of a report from Goldman Sachs' Investment Strategy Group released Friday morning.
And certainly, it was a rocky year with skyrocketing inflation, war, and a big drop in stock and bond prices. But theThe number of news stories about recession in 2022 exceeded the number tracked in 2020 when the U.S. economy was actually in a recession, the Goldman report found.Under the hood, the authors were actually fairly optimistic about what all this uncertainty means for the stock and bond markets — noting that 2023 is "likely to be less tumultuous.
Two consecutive down years in the S&P is "very rare historically," said Brett Nelson of Goldman who co-authored the report.the group thinks it will be mild and that the S&P could still post gains."As we talk about geopolitics, it is an irrational environment given what China and Russia are doing from our perspective," Mossavar-Rahmani said.
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