Spot Gold rallies back above the $1900/oz handle but the 200-day MA lies in wait. Do the Bulls have enough momentum for a break higher?
Jackson Hole Starts on Thursday and is likely to be the main driving force for markets this week. Central Bankers from the Bank of England , Bank of Japan , European Central Bank and of course Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell all expected to speak. As I have said over the past couple of days, I do not expect fireworks as we had at last year's event given the market dynamics at present. Volatility around the event is most likely guaranteed.
The rally which started yesterday occurred just as Gold prices reached overbought territory while we also printed a double bottom on the four-hour timeframe hinting at further upside. Falling yields and a weaker dollar will be needed if we are to see the rally continue with the 200-day MA resting around the $1907 handle and could serve to cap gains.
Meanwhile, a rejection from the psychological $1900 mark and a retest of the recent lows around $1885 comes into focus. The 50-day MA rests around the $1867 which is just above the 78.6% fib retracement level of the 2023 low to high move and could be a key confluence area if reached. Markets do appear to be largely driven by the fundamental and macro pictures at the moment and thus my initial thoughts are that any move will likely be dependent on the risk tone today as well as how market participants perceive the comments from Central Bankers at Jackson Hole later this week.Taking a quick look at the IG Client Sentiment, retail trader data shows 79% of traders are net-long on Gold.
For a more in-depth look at GOLD client sentiment and changes in long and short positioning download the free guide below.
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