Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) was reelected in a hard-fought runoff election over Republican Herschel Walker, cementing Georgia’s status as a toss-up battleground heading into 2024.
For the past two years, Republicans everywhere were comforting themselves with the supposition that now-President Joe Biden’s victory over then-President Donald Trump in typically red Georgia in 2020 was a fluke. Biden defeated Trump by a mere 11,779 votes.
Rountree said the change in Georgia’s voting patterns is all about demographics. In 1996, when the Republican nominee defeated President Bill Clinton in the Peach State 47% to 46%, with Reform Party nominee Ross Perot garnering 6.4%, whites made up 77% of the electorate, with blacks making up 19%. More than a quarter century later, white voters are 62% of the Georgia electorate, while blacks are 30%.
So, it was 2022 that was supposed to reassure Republicans that Georgia was still, for all intents and purposes, a red state. Yet even amid Biden’s struggles, a set of issues favoring the GOP, historical midterm election trends, and Kemp’s coattails, the Senate race was still a dogfight. And Warnock still finished on top. Indeed, his win over Walker, for decades a Georgia folk hero, ensured the Democrats would increase their ranks in the Senate.
Arizona emerged from the midterm elections as a decidedly competitive battleground after decades of voting reliably red in federal contests. Florida, a perennial purple state, looks a shade redder after Gov. Ron DeSantis led his party to a wave of victories across the state’s 2022 GOP ticket — the outcome Republicans were expecting elsewhere on Nov. 8 but that eluded them. Both developments could affect the race for the White House in 2024.
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