In the view of Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group, GBP/USD does not rule out a break below the 1.2500 support in
does not rule out a break below the 1.2500 support in the near term.24-hour view: Our view for GBP to trade in a range yesterday was incorrect, as it fell to a low of 1.2529 and then rebounded to end the day at 1.2564 . While the rebound in oversold conditions has caused momentum to slow, it is too early to expect a bottom. Today, as long as GBP stays below 1.2615 , it might drop further. In view of the oversold conditions, a clear break of 1.2500 is unlikely.
Next 1-3 weeks: Our most recent narrative was from two days ago , when we highlighted that “the risk for GBP appears to have shifted to the downside.” We also highlighted that “as downward momentum is only beginning to build, any weakness is likely to face solid support at 1.2545 and 1.2500.” Yesterday, GBP broke below 1.2545 and dropped to 1.2529. In view of the increase in downward momentum, it seems likely that GBP will break 1.2500.
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