“In the coming days, we’ll likely see the national average increase three to five cents,” Jeanette Casselano, a AAA spokeswoman, said.
While energy analysts predict that drivers will see moderately higher gas prices in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Ida, the increases will pale in comparison to the spike after Hurricane Katrina wreaked havoc on New Orleans and the surrounding areas in 2005.
After Hurricane Katrina, gas prices jumped roughly 45 cents in six days, according to the AAA. They began to fall after that, but it still took nearly two months before returning to pre-Katrina levels. “Gas prices can spike overnight, and then it just takes a while for them to come down,” said Jeanette Casselano, a AAA spokeswoman.
“Inventories of gasoline are quite low, at the bottom of the five-year range,” said Peter McNally, global sector lead for industrials, materials and energy at Third Bridge. “The saving grace is that we’re at the tail end of the driving season.” And although energy production in the area has grown in aggregate since 2005, the rise of shale oil production means that American energy output is much more geographically diversified, McNally said. “Gulf production is higher than it was in 2005, but as a percentage of the total pie, it’s smaller.”
There are two main impediments to restarting production: a lack of power and a deluge of water. More than 1 million people have been leftpower, and officials are warning that restoration could take several weeks. While industrial infrastructure like oil production and refining facilities are likely to be prioritized when repairs are made to the grid, much remains unknown about the damage the grid has sustained.
There also were unknowns remaining Monday surrounding the potential impacts on refining and transportation capabilities. “Some of the nation’s largest refineries are now down. Those are going to be key,” De Haan said. “It’s not so much oil. This is less about oil and more about getting these refineries back.”
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